关键词: 校园足球, 政策执行力, 系统动力学, 仿真模拟

Abstract: This study used system dynamics theory and methodology to create a system dynamics model of school football policy implementation with the factors affecting school football policy implementation as system variable indicators and conducted simulation test, aiming to help implementers accurately grasp football implementation pathways and orientation. The results show that: (1) school football policy implementation in the baseline scenario improves slowly. By 2030, the implementation capacity will grow by 178.8% compared with 2009; (2) all the 47 variables included in the four dimensions (policy consensus, implementation culture, implementation coordination, and implementation effect) can positively enhance policy implementation, but the enhancement effect of every single variable is limited; (3) effect of policy implementation coordination at the early stage is significant, while at the later stage policy consensus becomes a key variable affecting the upper limit of policy implementation. Based on this model, three pathways to enhance implementation have been designed: the parallel development of policy consensus and coordinated action between implementation bodies through various strategic combinations; the parallel development of implementation culture and implementation control and constraints; and the comprehensive development of reaching consensus, fostering culture, refining mechanisms, and providing feedback on effectiveness. These pathways can simulate the effects of different strategy combinations, and provide reference for implementers to improve their work efficiency.

Key words: school football, policy implementation, system dynamics, simulation