关键词: 东京奥运会, 竞争实力, 夺金形式, 备战策略

Abstract: Using the methods of game performance analysis and ranking tracking, this paper analyzes Chinese badminton team's gold medal winning situation in the Tokyo Olympics by systematically reviewing the change of Chinese badminton team's competitive strength since 2009 and comparing Chinese badminton team's competitive strength against its main rival, Japanese team, in the major international competitions in 2019. Our analysis reveals that Chinese team has a higher probability of winning gold medals in the mixed doubles event and men's doubles event in the Tokyo Olympics, and is at a comparative disadvantage in all the other events. Japanese team is the biggest obstacle for Chinese badminton team to win gold medals. We should correctly understand Chinese team's competitive situation, and further improve the scientific and technological services and organization guarantee work in preparations for the Olympics, thus ensuring that Chinese athletes can participate in the Tokyo Olympic Games in their best competitive state and realize the revival of Chinese badminton event.

Key words: Tokyo Olympics, competitive strength, gold medal winning situation, preparation strategies