四川省竞技体育与群众体育协同发展的系统动力学仿真研究
System Dynamics Simulation Analysis for the Coordinated Development of Competitive Sports and Mass Sports in Sichuan
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摘要: 竞技体育和群众体育的协同发展是时代命题,是民生工程。在特定条件下,均衡发展与非均衡发展都是协同发展的表现形式。目前四川竞技体育和群众体育的发展是非均衡的。文章运用系统动力学仿真模型,预测分析下一阶段四川竞技体育和群众体育协同发展态势。研究表明:2020-2030年间,四川省竞技体育和群众体育的协同发展应采取“均衡”策略。建议通过树立大体育观,转变体育强省评价思想;寻求市场驱动,破解经费投入难题;加强全民健身,为竞技体育提供人口红利等措施来促进四川省竞技体育和群众体育更好地协同发展。Abstract: The coordinated development of competitive sports and mass sports is not only a theme of the times, but also a livelihood project. Under certain conditions, both balanced and unbalanced development are the forms of coordinated development. At present stage, the developments of competitive sports and mass sports in Sichuan province are not balanced. Based on the system dynamics simulation model, the authors analyze the coordinated development of competitive sports and mass sports in Sichuan Province. The analysis indicates that the coordinated development of competitive sports and mass sports in Sichuan province should adopt a "balanced strategy" between 2020 and 2030. This strategy can be promoted by: adopting a large sports concept to transform the evaluation views of sports power province, seeking market driven mechanism to solve the funding problem; strengthening national fitness to provide a demographic dividend for competitive sports.
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